Ludo by the Numbers · by Ahmed Moaz · About

When leaving a piece in base is the right call

Ahmed Moaz · 13 October 2026

You throw a six and one of your pieces is still in the corner. The usual move is to bring it out. My view is that you should leave it there only when the six has a job a six can do better: a capture, or a rescue for a piece in danger. Otherwise bring it out, because under the ludo rules below a piece in base is just a six you still owe the table.

Is a six the only way out of base in Ludo?

Yes. In the ludo rules used here, a piece leaves its corner only on a six, and no other number opens the gate. It lands on its own colour's start square, and that square is one of eight safe squares on the board. The six also earns another throw, so freeing a piece does not cost you the turn.

A corner is only a start square that costs a six

The usual argument for holding a piece back is safety. Pieces in base cannot be captured, and pieces on the track can.

Look at where a released piece actually goes. The four start squares and the four star squares are the eight places where nothing can be taken. A piece that has just left base is standing on one of them. It is exactly as safe as it was in the corner, until you choose to move it off. The danger starts with the first step, and that step costs the same on turn three or on turn thirty.

So holding back buys no safety. It only delays a cost you will pay anyway. Four pieces need 56 steps each to reach the centre, which is 224 steps, and four sixes to get started.

Two jobs that beat a release

A six does the same thing for the turn whatever you spend it on: it gives one extra throw. A capture and a piece arriving home also give an extra throw, but they do not stack with the six. One throw, not two. So the choice is only about what happens on the board. These are the two sixes I would not spend on a release:

  1. A capture. Sending a rival home costs them a six to come back, which is six throws of waiting on average if nothing else of theirs can move.
  2. A rescue. Every distinct distance from one to six between a rival piece and yours is one number on the die that captures you. If a star square is exactly six ahead of your piece, a six removes that risk.

A worked example. One of your pieces is on step 2 of its route, a rival piece sits three squares behind it, and another piece of yours waits in base. You throw a six. Release the second piece, and the first stays exposed to a throw of 3, which is 1 chance in 6, ignoring free throws. Move the first piece six squares instead and it lands on step 8, a star square, where the risk is zero. Every colour's stars sit on steps 8, 21, 34 and 47. I would take the star and release on the next six.

If none of those applies, release.

Boardit is the small browser site where I put these rules into a Ludo table, with a fixed 30-second turn clock.

What waiting costs

Suppose you hold the last piece back and the others reach home. Now every turn is one throw, and only a six helps. At an online Ludo table, each of those throws also runs against the turn clock. The expected wait for a six is six throws, which means five wasted ones. After six throws, 33.5% of the time you are still waiting, because (5/6)^6 is about 0.335.

There is a second cost earlier. When a throw allows only one legal move, the game plays it for you. With a single piece out, every number except a six drags that piece forward, whether or not you like where it lands. A second piece gives you something else to move, and with it a choice.

I tried to find a safety reason to hold back and could not. Treat all of this as an argument from the rules rather than a measured result: I have not counted how often releasing early wins a game.

Playing Ludo with friends, which would you rather owe the table: a six you spent, or one you are still waiting for?

Written for Boardit's maker, Ahmed Moaz, with AI help. The game facts were checked against the game's code.